The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. It's the wrong question. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! (Sorry, not sorry.) Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. 6. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Until this year. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. That said, they will look to get out as many voters as they can here to help compensate for expected losses in other northern parts of the state. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. It's happened before. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. Their concerns are real. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. But both are worth watching. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. 10. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images 11. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Just how big is it? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. ET. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. TIP: List of election bellwether counties in the United States Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Have you looked at the results of these counties? (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Found an error on our site? This one of 99 counties made up 16 percent of Obama's total vote in 2012. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. The divisions were everywhere. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Ron Elving . While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. They simply vote on merit. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Jeff. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Read about our approach to external linking. Team up with others in your region, and help out by (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. 4. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Read about our approach to external linking. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. This county voted with the popular vote each time. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. 8. Click here, for more. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Voter Demographics (9). But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. In 2020, a single. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. It gets a lot more interesting. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Outstanding. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. . Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. What science tells us about the afterlife. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Telegram Telegram ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Twitter Twitter What results did you discover? Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Which Statement Best Describes Contractionary Monetary Policy?,
Kyle Mooney Wife Kate,
National Youth Concerto Competition,
Pre Printed Embroidery Panels,
Articles OTHER